A snapshot of labor in 2030

By: Kevin Rudolph, Maryland Chamber Foundation

We know that the future will bring innovation and with that the automation of certain skills, which will make the trades that employ these skills obsolete. In examining the percentage change of major industries in the State of Maryland, we see that not only automation, but most likely foreign outsourcing and onerous government regulations, will affect the labor market.

On a macroeconomic level what we are seeing will be good for workers remaining in the labor pool – the jobs that will remain or grow in 2030 pay higher salaries than those being lost. However, the people losing their jobs are, as a whole, lacking certain skills that would allow for easy re-entry into the labor force. The two issues at hand are 1) whether the job is lost because the sector is truly lost or 2) whether the job is lost because the sector is suffering from imposed onerous regulations.

Maryland’s Labor Projections:[1] [2] [3] [4]

Below we have identified certain job categories and their employment projections over the next decade. Additionally, we have each job category’s average weekly wage. Using both the employment projections and wages, we are able to visualize:

 MARYLAND Number of Employees & Percent Change (Q1, 2018)  
Major Industry (NAICS Classification) 2015 2020 2025 2030 Average Weekly Wage Per Employee (Q1, 2018)
Total Employment 3,552,200 3,755,200 3,880,700 3,974,200 $1,209
 Farm employment 15,800 15500 (-1.9%) 15300 (-1.29%) 14800 (-3.27%) $717
 Forestry, fishing, related activities, and other 2/ 6,200 6300 (-1.61%) 6100 (-3.17%) 6100 (0%) $773 (avg from two)
 Mining 5,000 5400 (8%) 5200 (-3.7%) 4900 (-5.77%) $844
 Utilities 10,400 10500 (.96%) 10700 (1.90%) 10900 (1.87%) $3,288
 Construction 222,600 242800 (9.07%) 256800 (5.77%) 269900 (5.1%) $1,238
 Manufacturing 110,700 108400 (-2.08%) 105100 (-3.04%) 101200 (-3.71%)

$1,727

 

 Wholesale trade 96,000 99700 (3.85%) 101600 (1.91%) 102900 (1.28%) $1,528
 Retail trade 347,800 359600 (3.39%) 364700 (1.42%) 368300 (.99%) $827
 Transportation and warehousing 100,700 107300 (6.55%) 109600 (2.14%) 111800 (2.01%) $1,511
 Information 52,100 52100 (0%) 52100 (0%) 52100 (0%) $1,992
 Finance and insurance 174,400 185900 (6.59%) 190800 (2.64%) 192600 (.94%) $2,065
 Real estate and rental and leasing 172,000 178800 (3.95%) 182500 (2.07%) 184500 (1.1%) $1,258
 Professional and technical services 352,000 376700 (7.02%) 395600 (5.02%) 408700 (3.31%)

$1,939

 

 Management of companies and enterprises 30,800 35800 (16.23%) 39900 (11.45%) 42900 (7.52%) $2,995
 Administrative and waste services 226,500 244200 (7.81%) 259500 (6.27%) 271000 (4.43%) $1,035
 Educational services 97,700 108500 (11.05%) 118100 (8.85%) 126200 (6.86%)

$1,092

 

 Health care and social assistance 428,400 464400 (8.4%) 488900 (5.28%) 509100 (4.13%) $894
 Arts, entertainment, and recreation 90,000 100200 (11.33%) 107100 (6.89%) 112200 (4.76%)

$1,351

 

 Accommodation and food services 237,100 254000 (7.13%) 265400 (4.49%) 273900 (3.2%) $538
 Other services, except public administration 211,600 227200 (7.37%) 237000 (4.31%) 245100 (3.42%) $809

Per Capita Personal Income:[5]

2015 2020 2025 2030
Maryland $52,000 $56,854 (1.8%) $60,112 (1.12%) $62,541 (0.8%)

What does the data tell us?

Maryland is projected to lose low-skilled employment but grow high-skill/high-wage employment. The reasons for this change is not necessarily known, however we can assume automation, foreign outsourcing and onerous government regulations will play a part in this change.

How we can respond:

As we can see, we are projected to lose jobs in farming, fishing, mining, manufacturing and more, however this is not a death sentence. If the sector is truly lost to automation, re-education and job training are solutions, but if the sector is simply suffering because of foreign outsourcing or government regulations, but still viable, government regulations can be eased allowing for lower costs of production with the goal of maintaining or increasing labor and output. This could also make American labor more competitive in the fact of outsourcing concerns.

Thus our efforts need to be on monitoring government regulations that harm employment sectors and investing in job training and re-education programs, both of which will serve the people of Maryland.

[1] https://planning.maryland.gov/MSDC/Documents/projection/employment/MD.pdf

[2] https://www.dllr.state.md.us/lmi/emppay/tab1md12018.shtml

[3] Certain averages were composed of averages from different sectors so as to create a more efficient presentation the data/results

[4] Note about the accuracy of the data: The data presented in a projected estimation and as such cannot be relied for exact accuracy, additionally, certain liberties are used in the projections that could skew the true results in 2030. As an example, we withheld the projections about federal and military employment in Maryland because we cannot accuracy project what a BRAC commission or government shutdown could do either positively or negatively to Maryland’s federal and military community.

[5] https://planning.maryland.gov/MSDC/Documents/projection/income/PCI_January2015Revisions.pdf

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